Does success on Facebook predict success on screen in ‘I’d Do Anything’?

I have plenty of opinions about the contestants in ‘I’d Do Anything’, and know who I want to win the show. Given the power of the internet, you’d expect to be able to find information that would tell you who the rest of the voting public is rooting for.

So, I’ve already started looking at betting odds, as you’d expect those to be a decent predictor for how the show pans out (if you’re interested in my writing about betting odds, take a look here). Since I work in media, I seem to spend a disproportionate amount of time talking about social networking. It struck me that it success in building social networks might be an alternative predictor of likely success in the show itself …

For those of you that have been asleep for the last couple of years, there are 3 immense social networks (Facebook, MySpace and Bebo), but since I only use facebook, that seems the best place to start…


‘Facebook Popularity Index’
Typing ‘I’d Do Anything’ into the search box returns 59 different groups. Whilst they are not all relevant, plenty of these are groups that encourage users to vote for an individual contestant in the show. You’ll also find plenty of other groups by searching for individual contestants…

So, if I create a ‘facebook popularity index’ based on total number of members in groups, it would place the contestants in the following order (after 4 live shows):

  1. Samantha (2290 members)
  2. Sarah (1758)
  3. Tara (1359)
  4. Francesca (1298)
  5. Jodie (1177)
  6. Niamh (546)
  7. Ashley (481)
  8. Keisha (372)
  9. Jessie (261)
  10. Cleopatra (91)
  11. Amy (52)
  12. Rachel (40)


The verdict
So, based on this, it doesn’t look like facebook makes a lot of difference. Tara and Francesca had plenty of fans on facebook, but not enough fans among the voting public. On the other hand, Rachel has the least facebook fans, but is yet to receive a negative comment from the judges, and is still one of the favourites to win the competition.

Having said that, facebook is just one of the 3 main websites, so the story might be different on bebo and MySpace – I doubt it though. I just don’t think that these websites are in any way reflective of the voting public. Not a particularly startling revelation I know!

I still think that fan pages can help, as the few extra votes that it generates might make all the difference when the competition is tough!

But if you’re guessing who’s going to win, I’d look at the betting odds instead!



Join a group

If you would like to join a group for one of the contestants, here are some of the ones that I came accross!

The 5 Biggest
Sam Barks to win I’d Do Anything – 2290 members
Vote Sarah Lark for “I’d Do Anything” – 1357 members
Make Francesca NANCY!!! – 1255 members
Tara to win ‘I’d Do Anything’ – 1116 members
Jodie Prenger to win “I’d Do Anything” – Global! – 1065 members

The 5 smallest
Cleopatra Royer for Nancy – BBC “I’d Do Anything” – 23 members
Jodie to win I’d Do Anything – 21 members
‘I’d Do Anything’ – Francesca to win! – 12 members
Cleopatra for Nancy – I’d Do Anything – 3 members
Rachel Tucker for Nancy – 3 members



3 Responses to “Does success on Facebook predict success on screen in ‘I’d Do Anything’?”

  1. 1 Emgan April 24, 2008 at 2:23 pm

    Gwion has a facebook group as well with 63 members and more joining everyday.

  2. 2 Jon April 24, 2008 at 3:23 pm

    thanks for that tip – in case anyone is interested, you can find the group at

    Now up to 65 members!

  1. 1 I’d Do Anything - What the bookies say (week 7) « Coloured Lights Trackback on April 25, 2008 at 10:15 am

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