I’d Do Anything – what the bookies say (week 4)

I saw a reference to ‘bookies favourite’ the other day when reading an article about ‘I’d Do Anything’ and the idea of betting on the result of the show intrigued me. Although I doubt I’ll actually end up betting on the result, I thought it would be interesting to look at the current odds and see whether they reflect my own views on contestants’ chances.

The first thng that amazed me was just how many bookmakers are offering odds on this TV show – there appear to be at least 9 including such big names as William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power and Betfair. If you want to see all of the odds in one place, I’d recommend looking at a website called easyodds.com here. But what do the odds tell me..

Who will leave next?
Judging by the latest odds, either Keisha or Tara will be next to go, which I think seems pretty sensible. Based on this week’s performance, Tara should have been in this week’s sing-off and got away with a poor showing. Given that Keisha has just been in the sing-off, it’s unreasonable to think that she’ll struggle to win the competition. Unless she improves dramatically next week, I think there’s every chance that she’ll be back in the bottom 2 again.

The bookies’ favourite
Jessie
is coming out as the favourite to win the show in every single exchange at the moment. Probably something to do with Andrew Lloyd Webber’s comments on Saturday about “being pinned to the back wall with your talent” which might suggest she is already his favourite. Personally, I’m not sure this will last given her lack of training. In the previous 2 series, we have seen that Andrew (understandably) worries about contestants’ ability to do 8 shows a week. Given that Jessie has no training (in fact, she was recently turned down by 2 drama schools!), I think she may be considered a risk later in the competition.

The main competition
The bookies are remarkably consistent on this as well – Rachel is considered the toughest competition for Jessie, followed by Samantha. In fact, Rachel’s odds aren’t far off Jessie, and are actually the same on SkyBet. I guess there are plenty of people that agree with me on this one as Rachel is definitely my tip to win. She’s professional, she’s got a fantastic voice and she can really act. I think she’ll be a tough person to beat and we know from previous series that professional training does end up making a difference.

I’m less convinced about Samantha. There’s a fair gap between the top 2 and her in the odds. She has performed well in the first 2 shows, but hasn’t done enough to convince me that she can win. Also has the disadvantage of being very young which will surely count against her later in the competion.

Dark horses
Whilst the bookies seem to have to be about write on the most and least likely, I think there are a couple of girls whose odds look a little high – I’d think I’d put my money on one of these two if I wanted to take a chance – Sarah and Francesca.

Let’s start with Sarah – you could get odds of 12-1 on her (compared to little over 2-1 on Jessie). Given how well she performed this week, that seems very long. She has the best voice in the competition, and Andrew seems to think that she could be Nancy. She’s also a strong actor from what we saw in this week’s challenge.

And finally, Francesca – yes, she was in the bottom 2 in the first live show, but odds of 18-1 from Coral seem pretty good for someone who has already starred opposite Denise Van Outen in the West End (in Rent: Remixed). Her performance was much better this week, so I think she is definitely a contender.

To conclude
I think it will be interesting to see how the odds change in the coming weeks. Let’s see if they are right about Jessie – I’m not sure! I guess she must have lots of early support.

If you haven’t read my post about this weekend’s shows, take a look here

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